Gas Prices 2026 Forecast by State: EIA Predictions and What Drivers Pay

The 2026 national average and EIA forecast

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook puts the national average for regular unleaded at $3.45 per gallon, down from $3.55 in 2025 and $3.71 in 2024. The EIA forecasts prices holding in the $3.35-3.60 range through the remainder of 2026, with a slight uptick expected during the summer driving season before easing in fall. The downward drift reflects stabilizing crude oil prices around $72-78 per barrel, improved refinery capacity after several years of tight supply, and softening demand growth as EV market share rises. However, the forecast carries downside risk from hurricane disruptions to Gulf Coast refineries and upside risk from geopolitical tensions that could disrupt oil supply. For a driver covering 15,000 miles per year in a 28-mpg vehicle, the 2026 average translates to about $1,848 in annual fuel cost.

The cheapest and most expensive states for gas in 2026

Gas prices vary dramatically by state due to differences in state fuel taxes, refinery access, and environmental regulations. The cheapest states in 2026 are Mississippi ($2.85), Oklahoma ($2.90), Texas ($2.95), Missouri ($3.00), and Louisiana ($3.05). These states benefit from low state fuel taxes, proximity to Gulf Coast refineries, and no requirement for specialized reformulated gasoline. The most expensive states are California ($4.80), Hawaii ($4.20), Nevada ($4.30), Oregon ($3.95), Washington ($3.85), and Alaska ($3.75). California's premium reflects the highest state gas tax in the nation (about 68 cents per gallon), strict CARB reformulated gas requirements that limit supply, and a cap-and-trade program that adds carbon costs. A driver in California pays roughly $1.95 more per gallon than a driver in Mississippi, which adds about $1,045 per year for a 15,000-mile driver in a 28-mpg car. Use our <a href="/calculators/fuel-cost/">fuel cost calculator</a> to estimate your annual spending based on your state and vehicle.

How the 2025 auto tariff affects gas prices

The 25% tariff on imported vehicles and parts announced in April 2025 does not directly tax gasoline, but it affects gas prices indirectly. The tariff raised the cost of imported vehicles and components, which pushed new car prices up about 10.4% and kept more older, less fuel-efficient vehicles on the road longer. Older fleets consume more fuel per mile, sustaining gasoline demand at a time when EV adoption was expected to erode it. The EIA accounts for this in its forecast, noting that the slower fleet turnover adds roughly 1-2 cents per gallon to the 2026 average compared to a no-tariff scenario. The tariff also affected parts used in refinery maintenance, briefly pushing up refining margins in late 2025 before supply chains adjusted.

State gas taxes: the hidden cost per gallon

State gas taxes explain much of the state-to-state price spread. The national average state gas tax is about 31 cents per gallon on top of the 18.4 cent federal tax. California charges 68 cents, Pennsylvania 58 cents, Illinois 55 cents (including sales tax), Washington 49 cents, and New York 45 cents. At the low end, Alaska charges 9 cents, Mississippi 18 cents, and Texas 20 cents. Some states index their gas tax to inflation or fuel prices, meaning the tax rises automatically each year. Pennsylvania's tax, the highest in the nation for several years, adjusts quarterly based on wholesale prices. When budgeting for fuel costs, check your state's current tax rate, because a driver crossing from Texas to California sees the tax component alone add 48 cents per gallon.

Diesel and premium gas price trends in 2026

Diesel averages $4.05 per gallon nationally in 2026, about 60 cents above regular unleaded, driven by strong demand from freight and construction and tighter refining capacity for distillates. Diesel drivers in California pay $5.40, while Texas diesel drivers pay $3.55. Premium gasoline (91-93 octane) averages $4.15 nationally, about 70 cents above regular, and is required by many luxury and performance vehicles. The premium-to-regular spread has widened slightly in 2026 as refineries optimize for regular output to meet volume demand. If your vehicle requires premium, that 70-cent premium adds about $375 per year for a 15,000-mile driver at 28 mpg. If your vehicle merely recommends premium, running regular typically costs 2-3% in fuel economy and horsepower, usually not worth the premium price. Check our <a href="/guides/premium-vs-regular-gas-cost-analysis/">premium vs regular gas analysis</a> for the full math.

How to cut your gas bill regardless of state

Three strategies cut gas costs meaningfully. First, use gas price apps like GasBuddy, Waze, or AAA to find the cheapest station within a few miles, because prices can vary 30-50 cents per gallon within the same city. Second, enroll in grocery store fuel rewards programs, which can save 5-25 cents per gallon at partner stations. Third, optimize driving habits: maintaining proper tire pressure improves fuel economy 3%, removing roof cargo when not needed saves 2-25% at highway speeds, and avoiding aggressive acceleration saves 10-40% in city driving. For drivers considering an EV, the 2026 gas price average of $3.45/gal makes the EV fuel savings calculation favorable in most states. A 28-mpg gas car costs $1,848 per year at 15,000 miles, while an EV charged at home at the national average $0.166/kWh costs about $550. Use our <a href="/calculators/ev-vs-gas-cost/">EV vs gas cost calculator</a> to compare for your state and mileage.

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